Context

Marine turtles play a critical ecological and cultural role across the Pacific region, yet they face a range of threats including overharvesting, habitat degradation, climate change, and illegal trade. Despite existing conservation initiatives, comprehensive, regionally coordinated assessments of extinction risks had been lacking. Recognising this gap, the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP), under the PEUMP Programme, initiated a regional marine turtle extinction risk assessment covering Fiji, Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea (PNG), Tonga, and Vanuatu. The purpose was to develop an evidence-based model to assess extinction risk, inform conservation priorities, and support national and regional policy-making. 

The assessment process formally began in April 2020 with the engagement of marine turtle specialist Dr. Nicholas Pilcher. In its initial phase, the project focused on gathering available literature and data, consulting regional experts, and identifying data gaps. Phase 1 included planning a technical workshop alongside the IUCN Marine Turtle Specialist Group (MTSG) meeting, originally scheduled for Monaco in June 2020 but later shifted to an online format due to COVID-19 restrictions. Despite global travel disruptions, the project progressed with input from national governments and turtle experts, leading to the development of a draft extinction risk model. The model incorporated both ecological and anthropogenic variables and relied on supporting data from national surveys on turtle use and beach climate monitoring. 

To complement the model development, SPREP supported national organisations to carry out data collection in Fiji, PNG, Tonga and Vanuatu. These efforts included surveys on turtle harvesting and use, both legal and illegal, as well as temperature monitoring on nesting beaches. These datasets were critical to tailoring the model to Pacific-specific contexts. A six-month no-cost extension was granted in 2021 to accommodate delays in data collection due to COVID-19 lockdowns and extreme weather events across the region. Despite challenges, steady progress was maintained with the consultant providing ongoing technical support and regular updates on the development of the model. 

Change Process 

1. Model Development and Expert Consultation 

The extinction risk assessment began with the appointment of consultant Dr. Nicholas Pilcher in April 2020. Phase 1 focused on literature review, identification of data gaps, and development of a methodology through expert consultations. A technical workshop planned alongside the IUCN Marine Turtle Specialist Group (MTSG) meeting was shifted to a virtual format in September 2020 due to COVID-19 travel restrictions. A draft situational analysis was submitted in January 2021, with each chapter reviewed by relevant experts. The extinction risk model was developed by a modelling expert based in France and shaped by criteria identified through peer review and regional feedback. A six-month no-cost extension was granted to accommodate COVID-19 disruptions. 

2. National Data Collection and Capacity Support 

To support the model, national-level turtle use and nesting beach climate data were collected in Fiji, PNG, Tonga, and Vanuatu. SPREP provided technical assistance to national organisations conducting these surveys. Data gathering activities focused on capturing the scope of both legal and illegal turtle use for cultural, customary, and food security purposes. Climatic data from nesting beaches were also collected to understand environmental stressors affecting turtle populations. Despite COVID-19 and extreme weather delays, these activities were successfully completed by early 2023. 

3. Model Finalisation and Statistical Analysis 

The extinction risk model was peer reviewed by an expert reference panel on 28 June 2022. Although a draft final report was submitted in October 2022, final outputs were delayed due to challenges with the model’s performance. These issues were resolved in July 2023, and the consultant continued providing technical inputs beyond the contract’s expiry to support finalisation. In parallel, SPREP launched a statistical analysis of turtle use data led by Proteus Research Consulting. A contract was signed in March 2024 and amended in September 2024 to allow more time for data consolidation. Final statistical reports were submitted in January 2025 and are currently undergoing expert review. 

4. Stakeholder Engagement and Workshop Planning 

To ensure regional uptake, findings were presented at National Turtle Workshops held in Fiji, PNG, and Tonga in February 2025. These sessions used pre-recorded presentations from the consultant to communicate results. The results were formally presented to government and community stakeholders in two workshops in April and May 2025. These workshops brought together civil society and government representatives to interpret the extinction risk assessment results and co-develop regional response actions. It also aligns with the Pacific Bioscapes initiative. In addition, complementary activities such as the upgrade of the TREDS database and regional marine turtle DNA analysis supported broader conservation coordination and scientific capacity-building. 

Results and Impacts 

The development and peer-reviewed validation of a regionally tailored marine turtle extinction risk model represents a major milestone for Pacific conservation efforts. The model integrates ecological and use data to provide a clearer understanding of extinction probabilities for turtle populations under different threat scenarios. Its structure was informed by expert consultations and refined based on feedback from the reference panel, ensuring it is technically robust and suited to Pacific contexts. The model’s results are currently being applied to assess national and regional extinction risks and will be published as a SPREP technical report, with plans for an academic journal submission underway. 

The national turtle use surveys provided essential baseline data on customary, subsistence, and illegal turtle harvesting. Data gathered in Fiji, PNG, Tonga, and Vanuatu has improved national understanding of turtle exploitation patterns and supported input into the risk model. These surveys also enhanced local capacity in data collection and analysis, and in some countries, have informed discussions on strengthening turtle protection regulations. For example, the findings are expected to support revisions to size limits, nesting beach management practices, and enforcement approaches. 

The statistical analysis of turtle use data led by Proteus Research has added a new layer of insight by synthesising data across countries and identifying broader regional trends. Final reports were delivered in early 2025, but discussions with technical experts are ongoing to finalise interpretations and guide recommendations. Once validated, this analysis will contribute directly to the refinement of national turtle conservation strategies and inform regional policy updates through SPREP and PEUMP platforms. 

The extinction risk assessment process has catalysed broader collaboration and capacity-building across the Pacific. The upgraded TREDS platform now serves as a regional repository for turtle monitoring data, accessible to governments, NGOs, and communities. The DNA sample analysis initiative is furthering scientific understanding of turtle population structure and connectivity across the Pacific, which is critical for transboundary management. National and regional workshops have also strengthened stakeholder engagement, building consensus on shared conservation priorities and identifying coordinated actions to address key threats to marine turtle populations. 

Lessons Learnt 

• Regional assessments must allow for flexibility to accommodate unforeseen delays, such as pandemics or natural disasters, without compromising scientific rigour. 

• Sustained technical support and clear communication between regional partners and national agencies are vital for maintaining project momentum and ensuring data quality. 

• Combining multiple data streams such as ecological, social, and genetic that strengthens the overall analysis and leads to more comprehensive conservation strategies. 

• Regular national and regional workshops help ground technical findings in practical realities and build the ownership necessary for effective policy uptake and implementation.